2008 has been a calamitous year for the financial market. In SEA to East Asian, most stock market suffered more than 40% in value. China was one of the worst performers, losing almost 65% and Singapore 49% and Hong Kong 48%. Soon these countries will usher in the Year of the Ox. Traditionally, the westerner views the ox as bull that signifies tremendous energy. But unfortunately, the oriental may not share the same feeling. It is just a hardworking and stubborn animal. In my view, we may see a very sick and injured bull which does not augurs well for the financial market.
So 2009 will be wrought with volatility with more losses in the near horizon. Although the first trading day of 2009 started with a small bang for market around the world, it may not cheer up any investors. There are just too many uncertainties ahead.
Last year, the world was optimistic that growing economies of china and India will decouple from the US, but alas, this is not to be and hope is dashed of a recovery this half year. The world still needs the main consuming countries like US and Europe to drive the markets. But the situation in the US is in hopeless situation. The deteriorating housing market, the failing auto industries, the banks and insurance market are all on life support. With shrinking economic pie, corporations will have to expect disappointing performance.
Countries, especially in East Asia that depend on manufacturing exports will see record number so factories closure and bankruptcy. Countries that produce raw material like Australia, Brazil, Russia and Middle Eastern countries will suffer low commodities price will ultimately affect their economies.
So really, the world is still in the tunnel with no light in sight.
------------------------------Living to see the world------------------------------------
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