2009, INTO UNCHARTED TERRITORY

All the smart Alecs out there will be predicting the future at this time. To me, the financial analysts had failed miserably in 2008. If one were to dig into the archives for economic predictions at the beginning of 2008, one would question how qualified these people really were? How they got it so wrong and even the most correct were miles away from the actual event. The entire Wall Street would have collapse if not because of government intervention. What really happen to the MBAs, PHDs and super experts, with all the thesis and models which had worked in the earlier years? It was all for ‘buy, buy, buy’ then. Today it is ‘bye, bye, bye’.

Before our eyes now, we now can see the economic fissures around the world and with some trepidation, we are able to make an intelligent estimate, the depth of these cracks. So the diagnosis is now not as hazy. A prognosis of the seriousness and subsequent impact can at least be predicted with some degree of accuracy.

My view is pessimistic. The scale of the financial meltdown had been too momentuous and severe. The destruction of confidence has been near complete. The recession is confirmed and it is global in magnitude. No industries were spare from this financial tsunami. From retail, services, transport to commodities, the trail of debris will require a long time to clear. In order for the recovery, this confidence must to restored and at this moment, seem insurmountable. As the crisis deepened, what I fear now is trade protectionism which will spell dangers to a little country like Singapore that helplessly depend on the fate of external economy and commerce. Unless the leaders of the world take a concerted effort to keep a level head in dealing with this crisis rationally, it may spin out of control to nobody benefits.

So the world has now entered into uncharted territory. Like Vasco da Gama, Columbus and Zheng He, uncharted territory also brings new opportunities and hopes. Conversely, Vasco da Gama also faced disaster. With globalisation and internet age information flows, the world is better placed to weather this crisis. What we need is good leadership. The positive, is a transformed and better world which will benefit Singapore tremendously as our population are better educated and plugged into this world. We have the ability to make the change. On this note, I am very positive.

But on the other hand, 2009 will not be any better than 2008. The more optimistic may expect some economic recovery toward the end of this year. I see a lot of pain on the domestic fronts. There will be a lot of unemployed peoples. No need to write all these, as it will be on the news from time to time. My only wish is our clever ministers and their charges do not shoot off the hip, putting salt into wounds. For 2009, it is best just to move on and persevere. The good time will return, it must, no need for forecast, be it 1 year or 5 years.






-------------------------------Living to see the world------------------------------------