CNY Year of the Ox

Year of the Ox

So finally, the Ox has arrived. This is the year, I can withdraw my CPF and finally it dawn on me that I will have a few more years of working life left. Last year seem to zoom past me so quickly and I believe this year will be no different. My only wish is to stay healthy and the economic meltdown will dissipate as fast as summer comes, though I think this is farfetched, perhaps during summer in Australia.

The year of the Rat was inundated with so much negative news both locally and from the rest of the world. The world including Singapore will be facing the worst recession in 60 years. Nobody can escape the contagion of negative sentiment. As the statistics confirming recession streamed out from one country to another, reality finally sank in. No more state of denial and living on false hope. Now I just pray that the recession is “not too long”.

It will be a very worrisome years ahead. There just too many uncertainties in this world. We in Singapore just hope the major powers namely the US, Europe, Russia, China and India do not clash economically or politically. But with a new US government, somewhat testy relations with China can be anticipated as new US president certainly has to do some posturing. People said, when elephants fight, the grass get stampeded. Our three nearest neighbours will most likely be bogged down and consumed by domestic elections. I hope we do not become their bashing boys.

Today is Chinese New Year, and I am writing all these inauspicious staff. I know many adult celebrating this CNY felt some awkwardness and sense of trepidation. I know I am not in the minority.

As with every CNY, my parent say I will be one year older. When I was young, it’s a happy occasion because, it means I will have more freedom and do more things. Now that I am getting older means I have to think about retirement and worry about my health. Notably, my pair of legs has lost the vitality I used to have. On the positive note, I can enjoy and appreciate more of the simple things in life. My children are closer to the finishing line in term of education. I had fulfil most of my aspirations and don’t really yearn for any recognition, status or power. I am not perturbed by how other perceived me for what I wear, drive or use. I don’t need Mercedes and Rolex to make a statement.

Over the years, the first day of CNY begins with breakfast together. This was followed by photo taking with my family. First itinerary was to visit my brother Bobby and has lunch in his house. Then we visited my mum’s brother family in AMK. We returned home for a short rest and then we went to my In-Law house in Jurong West for dinner.
This has been my routines since I got married. We had steam boat for dinner. Tomorrow we will host my extended families as well as In-Laws and families.

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Chinese New Year Eve

I am writing this blog from Tokyo. If I remember correctly, I had always had reunion dinner with my family. This year is exception but I will still be back for the CNY. My daughter is in Paris on a study tour. Just wondering if this is the way in the future. We live in a globalised world and Singapore a global village.

Today is the last day of the Year of the Rat. Certainly, it was not a good year for me where finance and health is concern. 2008 was fraught with financial catastrophe of first degree. The wreckage to the stock market was almost absolute which left me sitting on a pile of paper losses. Thankfully, my prudence has saved me from devastation others had suffered. I honestly feel this is a sad and unmitigated loss. It was collateral damage for me when the excess of the American capitalism unfold and collapse into total financial mayhem, dragging the whole world along with it.

Though I will love to welcome the Year of the Ox, but I am not excited at all. The Ox may be even worst then the Rat. As financial news flow in each day, there is nothing but bad news and it seems to get worst and worst. There are rescue packages, stimulus packages, resilience budget and so forth coming out from every governments of the world, but the outlook is just bleak. Only the politicians can masquerade with a confident face, hopefully to shore up confidence, if there is any. The best investment this year is 'just do nothing'.

There will be a paradigm shift in the economy. Financial market will never be the same again. The good days for the banks are over. It will be back to basic for investors, to earn a small and reasonable returns will be good enough.

For workers, not getting retrenched or pay cut is by itself a bonus. We can be more sanguine and realistic and accept our place in the workplace as a privilege and not a right. I love my job and will cherish every moment whether on duty or nightstop overseas

My wish for the Year of the Ox is to be happy and healthy, and my children do well in their education and my wife is successful in her business venture.

AMERICA BLACK PRESIDENT

Today I watched the inauguration of the first ever black American president, Barack Obama. This monumental event epitomised the journey of black African coming to America as slave and today, as president, thus becomes the most powerful man in the present world. It was a very poignant, sombre and moving event for most American who believe in the American’s Dream, that everything is possible. More so for black American who has steadfastly fought for their civil right. But for this day to happen, the conditions and environment of the American constitution, Rules of Laws, very sound political institutions are all in place. Most importantly, both citizen and politicians respected and observed all the rules of play. All these ingredients are conspicuously lacking throughout the rest of the world.

From an Asian perspective, I can’t help but wonder, will it be possible for a Tibetan to head the Chinese government, or a Chinese Prime Minister in Malaysia or a Tamil heading Sri Lanka. That I am certain, will not be in my lifetime. Asian culture and tradition are far more complex. The major fissure is religion. The lack of respect for each other religion, culture and language and to some extent, even contentiously fought.Definitely, this will take a long time for various race to accept and respect one another. It’s different in America, the black or white have a common language and almost similar in religious belief. If I may be sceptical, I wonder whether an American born Chinese or American born Arab with the same ability as Obama can even get through the presidential primaries. So carry on dreaming, for those who are not black or white.

The last eight years, President Bush has antagonised the entire world. The world has been more polarised, fraught with too much hatred and suffering. The economy has crumbled under its own under-regulated market in the name of free market economy and capitalism. The failure or near failure of almost all major financial institutions had create an economic catastrophe for the rest of the world. Politically, the world has become far more dangerous with terrorism, priracy, refugees resulted from racial and territorial conflict. Global warming and environmental damages are issue that were never managed and addressed by Bush. For eight years, I think Bush has failed American and the rest of the world. So now good riddance to world most useless leader.

Whether I like Obama or not, I can only hope he makes the right decision to save America and thus save the world. Judging from his performance during the campaign, I have hope he will deliver. But time is not on his side. He had to muster all his leadership, wisdom and the political capital to reshape the world. Do something useful, forget the rhetoric and change the world for a more peaceful place. He must stop lecturing the rest of the world on American values or American superiority. Those days are over. He must learn that the rest of the world is different and each country has its own culture, traditions, political system and religious beliefs. And no countries are perfect. America must accept to co-exist with other countries. American should not to impose, engaging in politic of divide and rule, carving out its sphere of influence. American must shoulder the responsibility on environment issues .

Obama has a tough job on his hand. The president has a fat dossier of foreign policy problems, Iraq and Afganistan, Israeli and Palestinian conflict, Iran and North Korea nuclear programme. In west Asia, he has to balance the domestic interests of Pakistan and India. He has to watch the Chinese growing military and economic powers without alienating the cordial relations which has been built up since Clinton’s day.

Of course the most pressing issues are domestic, the high unemployment, home foreclosures, high cost of health care. Of course this can only happen if the financial wreckage can be repair, rebuild and confidence restore and get America out of the recession. It is a very tough call.

I wish him good luck for the benefit of the rest of the world including Singapore

2009, Year of the Sick Bull

2008 has been a calamitous year for the financial market. In SEA to East Asian, most stock market suffered more than 40% in value. China was one of the worst performers, losing almost 65% and Singapore 49% and Hong Kong 48%. Soon these countries will usher in the Year of the Ox. Traditionally, the westerner views the ox as bull that signifies tremendous energy. But unfortunately, the oriental may not share the same feeling. It is just a hardworking and stubborn animal. In my view, we may see a very sick and injured bull which does not augurs well for the financial market.

So 2009 will be wrought with volatility with more losses in the near horizon. Although the first trading day of 2009 started with a small bang for market around the world, it may not cheer up any investors. There are just too many uncertainties ahead.

Last year, the world was optimistic that growing economies of china and India will decouple from the US, but alas, this is not to be and hope is dashed of a recovery this half year. The world still needs the main consuming countries like US and Europe to drive the markets. But the situation in the US is in hopeless situation. The deteriorating housing market, the failing auto industries, the banks and insurance market are all on life support. With shrinking economic pie, corporations will have to expect disappointing performance.

Countries, especially in East Asia that depend on manufacturing exports will see record number so factories closure and bankruptcy. Countries that produce raw material like Australia, Brazil, Russia and Middle Eastern countries will suffer low commodities price will ultimately affect their economies.

So really, the world is still in the tunnel with no light in sight.




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2009, INTO UNCHARTED TERRITORY

All the smart Alecs out there will be predicting the future at this time. To me, the financial analysts had failed miserably in 2008. If one were to dig into the archives for economic predictions at the beginning of 2008, one would question how qualified these people really were? How they got it so wrong and even the most correct were miles away from the actual event. The entire Wall Street would have collapse if not because of government intervention. What really happen to the MBAs, PHDs and super experts, with all the thesis and models which had worked in the earlier years? It was all for ‘buy, buy, buy’ then. Today it is ‘bye, bye, bye’.

Before our eyes now, we now can see the economic fissures around the world and with some trepidation, we are able to make an intelligent estimate, the depth of these cracks. So the diagnosis is now not as hazy. A prognosis of the seriousness and subsequent impact can at least be predicted with some degree of accuracy.

My view is pessimistic. The scale of the financial meltdown had been too momentuous and severe. The destruction of confidence has been near complete. The recession is confirmed and it is global in magnitude. No industries were spare from this financial tsunami. From retail, services, transport to commodities, the trail of debris will require a long time to clear. In order for the recovery, this confidence must to restored and at this moment, seem insurmountable. As the crisis deepened, what I fear now is trade protectionism which will spell dangers to a little country like Singapore that helplessly depend on the fate of external economy and commerce. Unless the leaders of the world take a concerted effort to keep a level head in dealing with this crisis rationally, it may spin out of control to nobody benefits.

So the world has now entered into uncharted territory. Like Vasco da Gama, Columbus and Zheng He, uncharted territory also brings new opportunities and hopes. Conversely, Vasco da Gama also faced disaster. With globalisation and internet age information flows, the world is better placed to weather this crisis. What we need is good leadership. The positive, is a transformed and better world which will benefit Singapore tremendously as our population are better educated and plugged into this world. We have the ability to make the change. On this note, I am very positive.

But on the other hand, 2009 will not be any better than 2008. The more optimistic may expect some economic recovery toward the end of this year. I see a lot of pain on the domestic fronts. There will be a lot of unemployed peoples. No need to write all these, as it will be on the news from time to time. My only wish is our clever ministers and their charges do not shoot off the hip, putting salt into wounds. For 2009, it is best just to move on and persevere. The good time will return, it must, no need for forecast, be it 1 year or 5 years.






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