If you ask me how I would describe Year 2009, my answer will be one word. ‘’Boring’’.
There was no shattering news or events that kept any Singaporeans on tenterhooks, to be traumatised or to pray for divine intervention. Unlike other countries, there were no demonstrations or terrorism scare or any major fatalistic accidents in workplaces. There was no tunnel, scaffolding or building structures collapse. It must be a journalist honeymoon year and delight that didn’t require them on 24/7 covering news with no sleep or shower.
Other than AWARE saga and the capture of Mas Selamat in Johore, I find it difficult to even remember a few domestics’ news. Perhaps my memory is failing as I officially joined the old man club this year.
But the first quarter of the year is best described as an economic scare arising out of the subprime crisis from America. No doubt our government has gone overdrive to provide the stimulus packages to get us out of recession. But Singaporeans rightfully have reason to be worried even though the situation was not one of despair and hopelessness. We know the government has the economic pulse at their fingers tip. Aware of the massive reserve that Singapore has, Singaporeans are primed and geared up for the ‘raining days’ resulting from this ‘passing thunderstorm and shower’. By the middle of the year, the sky was clearing up. Although not completely clear, more passing showers or drizzles are anticipated occasionally next year.
Singapore organised the APEC forum and see many world leaders ascending on our shore. It was an orderly event with no foreign NGOs demonstrating to grab world headlines. I think most of the would-be international demonstrators from NGOs have decided to give it a miss.
On the world front, Obama became the first black president of America. As time passes, he is just another American president trying to solve American recession and the world's problem. I think to date he has yet to produce any tangible result.
There rest of the world news are really nothing new. News from Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Taliban, Iran and its nuclear ambitions, North Korea and it missile tests, suicide bombings, terrorism acts help filled the pages of print medias. This will be the same news next year and years to come. None of this news has a global dimension that needs the world must act urgently.
The single most covered news for the year was the Copenhagen Climate Conference. In my opinion, it was a failure but on the positive note, at least the world largest emitters of greenhouse gasses have started talking. It was a first step.
Of course, there were so many news from Malaysia after the March 8 General Elections. We can write a book on the domestic squabbles between political parties, between different races and between different religions. And the single biggest and loudest critic is Mahathir. His tirades against his opponents and adversaries were definitely not lacking in tenacity for his age.
In Malaysia, the single most controversial, bizarre and heart breaking event was the death of Teoh Beng Hock, and political aide to an opposition MP. He died in to early hours at the premises of Malaysian Anti-Corruption Agency on the day he is to register his marriage to his pregnant fiancée. The agency and some senior government officials were quick to speculate he committed suicide. His death certainly touch the raw nerves of Malaysian from all races and walks of life. The remarks further erodes the creditability of the ruling Barisan National. Time permitting, I would love to write about Malaysia in 2009 on all the scandals, endless rumours, political infighting and all the controversies.
I hope 2010 will be a better year.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday, December 31, 2009
Monday, December 28, 2009
END of 2009
ON THE ECONOMIC FRONT
It is time to say farewell to the first decade of this new millennium. The first quarter of 2009 will be best remembered for the unprecedented financial crisis that gripped and consumed us. This tumultuous meltdown from USA is so contagious and seem that no nation were immune. It almost bankrupted the world and cause unimaginable hardship unheard off especially for those like me, born after WW2. No nations had the immunity to escape this contagious economic plague. Governments around the world worked frantically to implement economic stimulus packages to avert this impending financial catastrophe. Never in the history of the world did leaders from every nations simultaneously and spontaneously pumped in enormous amount of money into the financial system. Even with all the governments working overdrive, the public were not spared the fear of unemployment as the economic is predicted to go into deep recession.
By March, most markets in the world have collapsed to 10-year low. The mood, needless to say, was one of outright doom and pessimism. Across the world, all sectors of business slumped abruptly. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the markets. Our own government too lost billions when they decided to cut loss in their portfolios. No one dare predict the future. Analysts were divided whether it was going to be L, V or U shaped recovery. Some say even double dip recession.
By June, the stock market showed signs of recovery. This was in anticipation that the worst was over and stock markets continue to recover till the end of the year. Most markets have exceeded the 12 months high. It was really unexpected that the speed of the stock market recovery was so phenomenal. For the brave, huge gains and windfalls were made. What a paradox! the midst widespread pessimism at the beginning of the year and now. Many cautious investors were left high and dry, missing the opportunity of the decade.
The sub-prime crisis was supposed to be manageable US$1 trillion debt. It was believed by many economic analysts that US alone can withstand a massive default from the debts of this housing bubble. Even the FED chairman Bernanke admitted that he did not anticipate the severity and danger of this crisis. It also certainly reinforces the interconnectivity of this globalised world. The electronic and internet age spared no one and the speed of the financial tsunami that spread throughout the world left people with very little breathing space. As US market closes, market in Asia-pacific opens, followed by Middle East and then Europe and back to US. The domino effects of the falling markets were nerve wrecking.
In this crisis, many new terms was coined. The one that capture the most attention was “too big to fail”. Citibank, AIG, and GM were rescued at enormous cost with tax payer money.
Politically, this crisis has many implications especially on USA. It may marks the end of USA domination as the world sole economic power. It has become a net debtor nation. On the contrary, China with is hefty reserve may has perched up the hierarchy of world economic powerhouse. We now see the G8 may lose it relevance to G20.
more to follow
-------------------------------------------------------------
It is time to say farewell to the first decade of this new millennium. The first quarter of 2009 will be best remembered for the unprecedented financial crisis that gripped and consumed us. This tumultuous meltdown from USA is so contagious and seem that no nation were immune. It almost bankrupted the world and cause unimaginable hardship unheard off especially for those like me, born after WW2. No nations had the immunity to escape this contagious economic plague. Governments around the world worked frantically to implement economic stimulus packages to avert this impending financial catastrophe. Never in the history of the world did leaders from every nations simultaneously and spontaneously pumped in enormous amount of money into the financial system. Even with all the governments working overdrive, the public were not spared the fear of unemployment as the economic is predicted to go into deep recession.
By March, most markets in the world have collapsed to 10-year low. The mood, needless to say, was one of outright doom and pessimism. Across the world, all sectors of business slumped abruptly. Trillions of dollars were wiped off the markets. Our own government too lost billions when they decided to cut loss in their portfolios. No one dare predict the future. Analysts were divided whether it was going to be L, V or U shaped recovery. Some say even double dip recession.
By June, the stock market showed signs of recovery. This was in anticipation that the worst was over and stock markets continue to recover till the end of the year. Most markets have exceeded the 12 months high. It was really unexpected that the speed of the stock market recovery was so phenomenal. For the brave, huge gains and windfalls were made. What a paradox! the midst widespread pessimism at the beginning of the year and now. Many cautious investors were left high and dry, missing the opportunity of the decade.
The sub-prime crisis was supposed to be manageable US$1 trillion debt. It was believed by many economic analysts that US alone can withstand a massive default from the debts of this housing bubble. Even the FED chairman Bernanke admitted that he did not anticipate the severity and danger of this crisis. It also certainly reinforces the interconnectivity of this globalised world. The electronic and internet age spared no one and the speed of the financial tsunami that spread throughout the world left people with very little breathing space. As US market closes, market in Asia-pacific opens, followed by Middle East and then Europe and back to US. The domino effects of the falling markets were nerve wrecking.
In this crisis, many new terms was coined. The one that capture the most attention was “too big to fail”. Citibank, AIG, and GM were rescued at enormous cost with tax payer money.
Politically, this crisis has many implications especially on USA. It may marks the end of USA domination as the world sole economic power. It has become a net debtor nation. On the contrary, China with is hefty reserve may has perched up the hierarchy of world economic powerhouse. We now see the G8 may lose it relevance to G20.
more to follow
-------------------------------------------------------------
Wednesday, December 16, 2009
Copenhagen Climate Conference
While the leaders and the people of the world are fully aware if we fail to act, the world will be environmentally unsustainable for the human race. All the worry for our children’s children’s children future is nothing but rhetoric hot air if no one is prepared to take a meaningful and painful sacrifice. The west and the rich have plundered the world in the last few centuries. Now these people are standing from the moral high ground to lecture the world what need to be done to save the world. They had conveniently forgotten the environmental damage and pollution they had inflicted on the earth as they become developed countries.
These are the major contentions that are obstacle to an agreement on how to cut carbon emission. The poor and developing countries want to develop but are very concern the new rule on carbon emission demanded by the richer countries will hinder its progress. The rich countries are not prepared to provide a meaningful financial assistance. There is unhappiness that the rich and developed countries do not fully acknowledge and account for the destruction of the earth committed in the past.
The UN Copenhagen Climate Conference is supposed to address all the issues of climatic changes and to provide a framework to make the world more sustainable, and also bridging the gap between the various countries. It is an uphill battle to get consensus between the rich and the poor and among the big countries like China, India and developed countries like the USA and Europe. At the rate the talk is proceeding and the world leaders are supposed to meet in a few days time, agreement is nowhere near. Looks like it will just end with agreement for more talk!
It boils down to each countries fighting for their immediate interest. Each government need to protect its own interest as well as to guard their political interest. What the points of agreeing on climate change but lose the election. How many elected government has the political will to ask its citizen to drive smaller cars, use less air-conditioning or eat less meat. Will company willing to spend more for environmental protection and tell shareholders that they will make less profit. For the developing countries, tell its farmers not to burn waste in open, cut down trees or clear forest for agricultural plantations.
Then there are the problems of implementation on agreed emission cut on greenhouse gas. Who will monitor the compliance of the agreed emission cut? How can we trust the fund paid by rich countries did not go to wrong hands and funds are properly used for the right purposes? What if the rich countries renege on the agreement? How will countries like China and India enforce the agreement on its factories where they are unscrupulously motivated by profit rather than clean environment? Corruption in developing countries will be the greatest obstacles to monitoring compliance.
As I see it, there is just no compelling motivation and fear from the bottom up. That is, the citizens of the world are unable to see the urgency and the need to take immediate actions to save the world as it does not affect their present lifestyle. The globalise world have driven people to be materialistic. And human being by nature are selfish, will not see the urgency to do something that will not affect them in their life time. How many are so magnanimous and really care for the children’s children’s children's future! And deny themselves and their children the luxury and comfort that we work so hard to afford these.
The world will be very green if we can live with only the bare necessities. Can we?
More....
These are the major contentions that are obstacle to an agreement on how to cut carbon emission. The poor and developing countries want to develop but are very concern the new rule on carbon emission demanded by the richer countries will hinder its progress. The rich countries are not prepared to provide a meaningful financial assistance. There is unhappiness that the rich and developed countries do not fully acknowledge and account for the destruction of the earth committed in the past.
The UN Copenhagen Climate Conference is supposed to address all the issues of climatic changes and to provide a framework to make the world more sustainable, and also bridging the gap between the various countries. It is an uphill battle to get consensus between the rich and the poor and among the big countries like China, India and developed countries like the USA and Europe. At the rate the talk is proceeding and the world leaders are supposed to meet in a few days time, agreement is nowhere near. Looks like it will just end with agreement for more talk!
It boils down to each countries fighting for their immediate interest. Each government need to protect its own interest as well as to guard their political interest. What the points of agreeing on climate change but lose the election. How many elected government has the political will to ask its citizen to drive smaller cars, use less air-conditioning or eat less meat. Will company willing to spend more for environmental protection and tell shareholders that they will make less profit. For the developing countries, tell its farmers not to burn waste in open, cut down trees or clear forest for agricultural plantations.
Then there are the problems of implementation on agreed emission cut on greenhouse gas. Who will monitor the compliance of the agreed emission cut? How can we trust the fund paid by rich countries did not go to wrong hands and funds are properly used for the right purposes? What if the rich countries renege on the agreement? How will countries like China and India enforce the agreement on its factories where they are unscrupulously motivated by profit rather than clean environment? Corruption in developing countries will be the greatest obstacles to monitoring compliance.
As I see it, there is just no compelling motivation and fear from the bottom up. That is, the citizens of the world are unable to see the urgency and the need to take immediate actions to save the world as it does not affect their present lifestyle. The globalise world have driven people to be materialistic. And human being by nature are selfish, will not see the urgency to do something that will not affect them in their life time. How many are so magnanimous and really care for the children’s children’s children's future! And deny themselves and their children the luxury and comfort that we work so hard to afford these.
The world will be very green if we can live with only the bare necessities. Can we?
More....
Tuesday, December 15, 2009
TIGER 'JUST DO IT' IS CAUGHT
Tiger Woods, the sport celebrity billionaire in the world has now been the butt of jokes in talk shows, Medias and magazines since his sex romps and revelations with so many women are unceremoniously exposed. The news have been gripping around the world over the last 2 weeks. The tiger has certainly gone hiding in the woods to escape the dragnet of paparazzis and tabloid reporters. But as the skeletons started falling out of the closet, nobody will doubt that his silence will be short-lived. First it was 3 lovers, and then it grew to 10 and more. One can also speculate the horde of married women involved won’t dare come out in the open to expose their exploits. Should the public be surprise? It must be naive to be so.
When one looks at this “Gillette” man, cleaned shaven and convincingly cut a gentlemanly figure, he must have completely hoodwinked the trusting public. After all, married to an ex-model that bore him 2 children, how did he end up with this sex scandal? Well the old adage of “don’t judge the book by its cover” certainly rings true.
And the Nike man surely takes the Nike message to heart. “Just do it”. So he doubles bogie, triple bogie and then multiple bogies till he lost count. I guess he cannot remember the scores for the women he slept with. Not also to forget the many fluke ‘hole-in-one’ that laid along his way.
Many will justify that it is the perils of success, or the fame or wealth. Tiger Wood is a billionaire, young at 33 with full of energy. Fame and wealth attracts women and sex. If Tiger is just a caddie, how many women will drop their skirts for him? It is also not surprising that most of the very famous sport personalities cannot escape the same temptations and indulgences. You can ignore, hold back temptation once, twice, a few times, but surely not forever unless these men wear male chastity belts and their wives keep the keys. More so in golf, opportunities are abundant as golf players are normally out of sight for hours during practices and can be away from home for weeks on competition. This provides perfect cover and alibi for any illicit encounters.
Tiger has made a public apology for his ‘infidelity’ and announced he is indefinitely stopping playing golf. Well he has a lot to do, fix the broken hearts, the broken marriage, his broken image and prepare for more lurid tales and rumours to surface. For someone who has dominated the sport for so long in the sport world, the fall from grace must be excruciatingly humiliating. A period of self reflection and time to strategise his comeback to the sports will be good for Tiger.
Tiger’s sponsors have initiate dissociation from him by withdrawing his advertisement to stay on the moral high ground. In the short terms, this could cost Tiger hundreds of millions. But in my opinions, in the long term, if he plays well, he will find many other sponsors especially those that appeal to male machos. After all, today sport world is driven by profit and sport personalities are the engines to corporate success.
What Michael Jordan is to basketball, Federer is to Tennis and Mohd Ali is to boxing, Tiger Woods is to golf. He has raised the profile of golf, bringing in big money to television and thing associated with not only golf but a wide range of consumer products. In another word, the sport and corporate world needed him and he will be rehabilitated in quick time. If he continues to play well, the fans will forget his scandal too. He is rich enough and he is not hard up of endorsement. He may lose his family, but there will be plenty of women in the queue. Why should his personal life be any different from other celebrities? They all have multiple marriages and families!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
When one looks at this “Gillette” man, cleaned shaven and convincingly cut a gentlemanly figure, he must have completely hoodwinked the trusting public. After all, married to an ex-model that bore him 2 children, how did he end up with this sex scandal? Well the old adage of “don’t judge the book by its cover” certainly rings true.
And the Nike man surely takes the Nike message to heart. “Just do it”. So he doubles bogie, triple bogie and then multiple bogies till he lost count. I guess he cannot remember the scores for the women he slept with. Not also to forget the many fluke ‘hole-in-one’ that laid along his way.
Many will justify that it is the perils of success, or the fame or wealth. Tiger Wood is a billionaire, young at 33 with full of energy. Fame and wealth attracts women and sex. If Tiger is just a caddie, how many women will drop their skirts for him? It is also not surprising that most of the very famous sport personalities cannot escape the same temptations and indulgences. You can ignore, hold back temptation once, twice, a few times, but surely not forever unless these men wear male chastity belts and their wives keep the keys. More so in golf, opportunities are abundant as golf players are normally out of sight for hours during practices and can be away from home for weeks on competition. This provides perfect cover and alibi for any illicit encounters.
Tiger has made a public apology for his ‘infidelity’ and announced he is indefinitely stopping playing golf. Well he has a lot to do, fix the broken hearts, the broken marriage, his broken image and prepare for more lurid tales and rumours to surface. For someone who has dominated the sport for so long in the sport world, the fall from grace must be excruciatingly humiliating. A period of self reflection and time to strategise his comeback to the sports will be good for Tiger.
Tiger’s sponsors have initiate dissociation from him by withdrawing his advertisement to stay on the moral high ground. In the short terms, this could cost Tiger hundreds of millions. But in my opinions, in the long term, if he plays well, he will find many other sponsors especially those that appeal to male machos. After all, today sport world is driven by profit and sport personalities are the engines to corporate success.
What Michael Jordan is to basketball, Federer is to Tennis and Mohd Ali is to boxing, Tiger Woods is to golf. He has raised the profile of golf, bringing in big money to television and thing associated with not only golf but a wide range of consumer products. In another word, the sport and corporate world needed him and he will be rehabilitated in quick time. If he continues to play well, the fans will forget his scandal too. He is rich enough and he is not hard up of endorsement. He may lose his family, but there will be plenty of women in the queue. Why should his personal life be any different from other celebrities? They all have multiple marriages and families!
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sunday, December 13, 2009
DUBAI THROUGH MY EYES
During the late 70s and 80s, I visited Dubai quite regularly. Like any cities in Asia, there were some new high rise buildings amidst plenty of low rise shop houses on the ground floor and offices on the higher level. On the roads, traffic was noisy with cars honking relentlessly. The air was filled with vehicles exhaust and when the wind blew, dust and sand swirls into the air. There were no paved pedestrian walk; neither were there any green such as trees or grass. The place was generally dirty. Each trip after I return to the hotel, I had to wipe out the sand from my shoes. Summer was burning hot and shops closed in the afternoon after 2pm. I love the local food especially the chicken tikkas and the curry Marsala.
Then in the 90s, Dubai started the greening process with parks created and trees planted. Pedestrian walkways were constructed and the building boom also started. By the end of the millennium, Dubai was set on a transformation at a pace nobody had envisaged. The roads, airport, buildings and shopping malls have completely transformed Dubai into a cosmopolitan city that match the most modern city in the world.
One has to ask, how a desert town become a modern city in just over a few decades. First reason is the unlimited amount of money from the oil revenues from around the region. The second is the sheer ambition of the sheikh of Dubai to build Dubai into a super city, financial and commercial centre that can match London and New York. The third is the success of earlier investments which attract more investments. Fourthly, abundant cheap labour also contributed to Dubai success.
In the last 10 years, Dubai has been on a great acquisitions trail around the world. It snapped up ports, hotels, properties, banks and very big companies with the sheer power of money. It started building mega projects in Dubai. To do all this, Dubai borrowed a lot of money without any problem because creditors believe the loans have the backing of the sovereign government. In all about 90 Billion were borrowed for all these mega projects.
Like any economic cycles, the boom must be followed by the bust. The world financial crisis was the catalyst to this property bust in Dubai. In spite of the deep pocket of the Dubai government and the other emirates, Dubai was to be no exception. Though in my opinion, Dubai is not going to default. My feel is that Abu Dhabi is patiently waiting by the sidelines to scoop up the distress assets at a cheap price. After all, of the 7 emirates that formed UAE, Dubai has no natural resources. What it has is ‘other people’ money and has acted as if it is the richest emirate. The richest of all is Abu Dhabi with is oil wealth.
to be continue
==================
Then in the 90s, Dubai started the greening process with parks created and trees planted. Pedestrian walkways were constructed and the building boom also started. By the end of the millennium, Dubai was set on a transformation at a pace nobody had envisaged. The roads, airport, buildings and shopping malls have completely transformed Dubai into a cosmopolitan city that match the most modern city in the world.
One has to ask, how a desert town become a modern city in just over a few decades. First reason is the unlimited amount of money from the oil revenues from around the region. The second is the sheer ambition of the sheikh of Dubai to build Dubai into a super city, financial and commercial centre that can match London and New York. The third is the success of earlier investments which attract more investments. Fourthly, abundant cheap labour also contributed to Dubai success.
In the last 10 years, Dubai has been on a great acquisitions trail around the world. It snapped up ports, hotels, properties, banks and very big companies with the sheer power of money. It started building mega projects in Dubai. To do all this, Dubai borrowed a lot of money without any problem because creditors believe the loans have the backing of the sovereign government. In all about 90 Billion were borrowed for all these mega projects.
Like any economic cycles, the boom must be followed by the bust. The world financial crisis was the catalyst to this property bust in Dubai. In spite of the deep pocket of the Dubai government and the other emirates, Dubai was to be no exception. Though in my opinion, Dubai is not going to default. My feel is that Abu Dhabi is patiently waiting by the sidelines to scoop up the distress assets at a cheap price. After all, of the 7 emirates that formed UAE, Dubai has no natural resources. What it has is ‘other people’ money and has acted as if it is the richest emirate. The richest of all is Abu Dhabi with is oil wealth.
to be continue
==================
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)